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Over the last few months, telecoms investors, operators and vendors have been focusing much of their attention on how to maximize the opportunity in what has come to be known as the BRIC countries – Brazil, Russia, India and China. Given the fact that mobile penetration has reached saturation in many markets in Western Europe and developed Asia, it is no surprise that market players are seeking future growth opportunities for their businesses in fast growing developing markets. Vendors, in particular, are looking with a keen eye at four of the most populous countries in the world for the potential that they hold for the sale of their infrastructure and terminal equipment.
Of the roughly 1.05 billion new subscribers that will be added to global mobile networks worldwide between 2005 and 2009, Pyramid estimates that 550m subscribers (53% of the total), will come from China, Russia, India and Brazil (see Exhibit 1). Interestingly, two other very populous countries – Indonesia and the United States – will add more subscribers than Brazil over the next five years, although much less attention is being focused by the international vendor community on these markets.
Exhibit 1: 2004-2009: 1bn Net Additions Worldwide 
Source: Pyramid Research 1Q2005 Mobile Forecasts
While it makes sense to look at these growth markets from an equipment perspective given the tremendous growth that these markets hold, these markets are much less attractive from a service revenue perspective. We estimate that roughly 16% of total mobile service revenues will be generated from the BRIC countries. By contrast, the United States mobile market will generate roughly US$700b in service revenue, or 21% of the global mobile services market, more than China, Brazil, India and Russia combined. Players focused on new services and applications, content, mobile commerce and other new service platforms are advised to continue focusing on the US and Japan, which together will account for one-third of all service and applications revenues generated by the mobile market around the world (see Exhibit 2).
Exhibit 2: 2004-2009: US$3.2 Trillion in Service Revenues
Source: Pyramid Research 1Q2005 Mobile Forecasts
Related Research:
Pyramid Research BRIC mobile data adoption study
Pyramid Research 1Q2005 Forecasts
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