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April 14, 2009
Given all the talk surrounding 3G license awards and delays in China and India, it was perhaps easy to overlook the award of 3G licenses in Vietnam on April 2, 2009 (see Capex in Asia-Pacific). Vietnam, however, is set to become one of the largest markets in Asia, with 120m subscriptions by the end of 2014, a figure on par with Japan’s current subscription base. It will also be one of the fastest growing: We expect Vietnamese operators to add 53m subscriptions over the next five years. This will also make it an attractive market for 3G equipment over the next few years. Assuming 3G is commercially offered by the end of the year, we believe that Vietnam will have approximately 43m 3G subscribers, or 36% of total subscribers, by 2014 (see Mobile Demand Forecast, Q1 09).
In total, the Vietnamese regulator awarded four licenses to five operators (one license was awarded to joint bidders). Three of the four licensees went to Viettel, VinaPhone and MobiFone – the expected winners since these three are the largest operators in Vietnam and command approximately 85% of subscriptions at year-end 2008. The last license was given to EVN Telecom and Hanoi Telecom, which jointly applied for 3G spectrum. CDMA operator S-Fone and newcomer GTel were the two that failed to win spectrum. Vietnamese regulator MIC will officially grant licenses three months following the April 2, 2009, announcement, assuming the winners meet license requirements. The regulator has also mandated that winning bidders begin 3G commercial services within nine months of receiving the licenses.
Second-largest mobile operator MobiFone says that it will start providing 3G services in the third quarter of 2009 and that it will divide its 3G equipment purchases between three vendors: Alcatel-Lucent, Ericsson and Huawei Technologies. All in all, the four licensees have pledged a combined US$2bn in 3G Capex investment over the next three years, a significant sum in the context of a market that generated just slightly more than $3.2bn in service revenue in 2008.
— Tae-Hyung Kim, Analyst
Related content:
Capex in Asia-Pacific: Driven by 3G in China, Spending to Rise Despite Global Downturn
Telecom Insider published February 2009
This report analyzes the drivers that make investing in infrastructure imperative for operators in Asia-Pacific, economic downturn or not. It puts the revenue generated in Asia into a global context and looks at the plans for future Capex in both developed and emerging markets in the region. The report also discusses vendors and which ones will be able to gain market share during these trying times. Three case studies, on NTT Docomo, China Mobile and Bharti Airtel, focus on the Capex plans of the main players in Japan, China and India, providing metrics such as Capex as a percentage of service revenue.
Communications Markets in Vietnam
Country Intelligence Report published June 2008
Pyramid Research expects Vietnam to be one of Asia Pacific's fastest growing markets, with total telecom service revenue increasing at a CAGR of 12.9% during the 2007-2012 forecast period, against the regional average of 5.0%. The main growth engine will be the mobile sector, both voice and data, while the fixed sector enjoys growth in broadband services. Demand for faster Internet connection will keep the market growing as dial-up subscribers switch to DSL services. This Country Intelligence Report analyzes Vietnam's communications, media and technology industries, including key trends, regulatory pressures and the competitive landscape, making it an excellent complement to our Forecast products.
Regional and Country-level Mobile Data Forecasts, Q1 2009
Forecasts published March 2009
Updated on a quarterly basis, our Mobile Data Forecast products provide complete pictures of demand trends for 81 geographical markets worldwide. The Excel output includes five years of historical data and five years of market projections for metrics such as penetration, mobile subscriptions (by type of package, by operator or MVNO and by network technology), users of specific data services (SMS, music, etc.), MOU, ARPS (by operator, by subscription type, by service, by application) and revenue (by messaging and non-messaging applications). The Forecasts are based on extensive field research and use a consistent methodology, aiming to capture the total spending on mobile data services in each market.
Mobile Advertising in Emerging Markets: Market Trends and Strategies for the Third Screen
Research Report published February 2009
Leading operators are pushing a variety of advertising methods, from sponsored messaging and alert services to more sophisticated content over mobile portals, and mobile advertising will markedly boost mobile data service revenue. This report looks at mobile advertising initiatives and the revenue potential in emerging markets, with a particular emphasis on Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Romania, Russia, South Africa and Turkey. We also put our findings in context by making comparisons with global trends and developed markets, such as the US and UK.
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