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July 30, 2009
Waiting at immigration in Indonesia last week, I noticed a Facebook mobile commercial being shown on TV. My first reaction was surprise, as I wondered if nationally broadcast TV commercials were the most efficient way for mobile operators to reach that tiny segment of high-end subscribers who might be tempted to upload photos through their 3G devices. Then it occurred to me that the operator was actually achieving something far greater than just reaching out to a small portion of its user base — it was boasting technology leadership and strengthening its brand by appealing to the aspirational side of consumers, highlighting new ways in which the young (and beautiful) were communicating via its network.
Considering we forecast 3G subscriber penetration to be just 11.4% for Indonesia by year-end 2009, it is clear that branding benefits are what is driving television ad spending at this point. Having said that, opex savings proffered by 3G networks are leading to increasingly aggressive rollouts of UMTS, and steeply declining handset ASPs will help 3G subscriber growth enjoy an astonishing 54% CAGR for 2008-2014; by 2014, 44% of Indonesian mobile users will be using a 3G device (see our latest Q2 2009 Asia-Pacific mobile data forecasts).
Bali, BlackBerry and the buck-a-day consumer
As the days passed (far too quickly, I might add, as I was on holiday on the idyllic island of Bali), I also noticed a disproportionate number of locals sporting the BlackBerry Bold, a device that retails for about US$500 in most shops around the island — incredible, when you consider average incomes are around $4.50 per day. Again, my first reaction was surprise until I remembered that Nokia enjoyed massive success here with its high-end Communicator smartphones on the back of — once again — consumer aspirations.
What is interesting to note — particularly for emerging market operators — is that despite prepaid accounting for the majority of BlackBerry users in Indonesia, non-messaging data usage is growing fast among this segment. Indeed, empirical research conducted by this analyst (consisting of a little small talk and a lot of shoulder surfing) revealed that around half of all BlackBerry owners were using the device for Web browsing and email. How can this be possible from a prepaid user base? Telkomsel, Indosat and XL — the country's three largest operators — have all launched a prepaid version of RIM’s BlackBerry Internet Service to enable usage purchases on a daily, weekly and monthly basis, with prices in the neighborhood of $0.50, $1.50 and $6-7, respectively. The packages enable email, IM, social networking, device management and browsing. Clearly, RIM and its operator partners are leveraging the emerging market trend toward “sachet marketing” — whereby companies forego marketing expensive, bulky goods originally targeted at consumers in developed markets in favor of smaller packets, typically one portion or a day’s worth, at prices everyone can afford.
The immediate impact has been the “consumerization” of the BlackBerry platform in the country, with a large portion of users either housewives or students! Over the long term, the impact of micro-pricing, or sachet bundling, is far more profound, as it will allow emerging market operators to leverage scale by helping them boost data ARPS among their largest customer segment — those at the bottom layers of the economic pyramid.
— Charles Moon, Manager, AP
Related content:
Asia-Pacific Mobile Data Forecasts
Forecasts published quarterly
Our Mobile Data Forecast products provide complete pictures of demand trends for 15 geographical markets in Asia-Pacific. The Excel output includes five years of historical data and five years of market projections for metrics such as penetration, mobile subscriptions (by type of package, by operator or MVNO and by network technology), users of specific data services (SMS, music, etc.), MOU, ARPS (by operator, by subscription type, by service, by application) and revenue (by messaging and non-messaging applications). The Forecasts are based on extensive field research and use a consistent methodology, aiming to capture the total spending on mobile data services in each market.
Asia-Pacific Mobile Demand Forecast
Forecasts published quarterly
Our Mobile Demand Forecast products provide complete pictures of demand trends for 15 geographical markets in Asia Pacific. The Excel output includes five years of historical data and five years of market projections for metrics such as GDP, mobile penetration, subscriptions (by operator, type of package, technology), ARPS and total mobile service revenue (data and voice). The Forecasts are based on extensive field research and use a consistent methodology across all markets, aiming to capture the total spending, from an end-user perspective, on mobile communication services in each market.
Asia-Pacific Mobile Operator KPI Forecasts
Forecasts published quarterly
Our Mobile Operator Key Performance Indicators Forecast products provide a complete picture of wireline voice and data communications in each of 15 Asia-Pacific markets. The Excel output includes five years of historical data and five years of market projections for metrics such as subscription totals, market shares, net and gross additions, prepaid and postpaid subscriptions, business subscriptions, data ARPS, aggregate ARPS, prepaid and postpaid MOU, churn and total service revenue — all broken down for the mobile operators in the respective markets. We believe our Mobile Operator KPI Forecasts are superior because they capture granular data gathered through extensive field research and use a thorough methodology consistently applied to all markets.
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Pyramid Points
