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January 8, 2010
Although Asia-Pacific is largely known for the huge potential of its mobile markets — thanks to the billion-plus population markets of China and India — this region also stands out in terms of fiber adoption. Currently, Japan and South Korea are the world’s leaders in terms of fiber deployment. Broadband adoption is so pervasive and advanced in these markets that South Korean incumbent fixed operator KT upgraded all of its 20Mbps broadband subscribers to 50Mbps for free in 2008. As of 2009, the Asia-Pacific region accounted for 73% of all FTTH subscribers, as shown in the December 2009 edition of our Global Fixed Communications Forecast.
Exhibit 1: Total FTTH access lines by region, 2009
 Source: Pyramid Research Q4 2009 Global Fixed Communications Forecast
As such, we forecast that the number of FTTx subscribers in Asia-Pacific excluding Japan and South Korea will overtake that of FTTx subscribers in those two markets by 2012. Such large-scale uptake from China will continue to increase FTTx adoption in the Asia-Pacific region as FTTH markets mature, thus slowing down the growth rate of fiber access in Japan and South Korea.
Exhibit 2: FTTH vs. FTTB/FTTN lines (m), China
 Source: Pyramid Research Q4 2009 China Fixed Communications Forecast
Within the Asia-Pacific region, Japan and South Korea currently account for 85% of all FTTH connections. Other markets, such as Singapore, Malaysia and Taiwan, are now also speeding up their fiber deployments as consumers demand more and more bandwidth for not only PC-based content but also HD video programs for their TVs. The market that sticks out the most is China, which is heavily investing in FTTB/FTTN, rather than FTTH, to lower the cost of deployment while providing reasonable access speeds. We expect FTTB/FTTN growth to accelerate significantly in China from 2010 to reach 58m subscribers by 2014.
Exhibit 3: Japan/South Korea vs. Asia-Pacific, FTTX lines (m)
 Source: Pyramid Research Q4 2009 Asia-Pacific Fixed Communications Forecast
— Tae-Hyung Kim, Senior Analyst
Related content:
Communications Markets in China
Country Intelligence
Report published June 2009
China’s telecom market generated $110bn in 2008,
making it the second largest telecommunications services market in Asia-Pacific after
Japan. It will overtake Japan in 2011, though it will still be half the size of the US
market. China, like many emerging markets, is becoming an increasingly mobile market,
and by 2014, we expect mobile services to account for more than 76% of total services
revenue. This Country Intelligence Report analyzes China's communications, media and
technology industries, including key trends, regulatory pressures and the competitive
landscape, making it an excellent complement to our Forecast products.
Asia-Pacific Fixed Operator Market Share
Forecasts
Forecasts published quarterly
Our Fixed Operator Market Share Forecast products provide a complete picture of
wireline voice and data communications in each of 14 Asia Pacific markets. The Excel
output includes five years of historical data and five years of market projections for
metrics such as fixed lines, voice telephony, VoIP, circuit-switched lines, ARPM,
narrowband, broadband, Internet accounts, fiber, DSL, cable and revenue — most of them
broken down for the mobile operators in the respective markets. We believe our Fixed
Operator Market Share Forecasts are superior because they capture granular data
gathered through extensive field research and use a thorough methodology consistently
applied to all markets.
Asia-Pacific
Fixed Communications Forecasts
Forecasts updated quarterly
Our Fixed Communications Forecast products provide a complete picture of wireline
voice and data communications in each of 14 Asia-Pacific markets. The Excel output
includes five years of historical data and five years of market projections for
metrics such as demographics and economic trends, penetration of broadband and
narrowband lines, Internet users, business users, voice telephony lines, VoIP, PCs,
IPTV and revenue. We believe our Fixed Communications Forecasts are superior because
they capture granular data gathered through extensive field research and use a
thorough methodology consistently applied to all markets.
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