A recovering economy, an active commissioning body and heightened competition driven by Airtel have made the telecom sector in Kenya a dynamic environment poised for steady growth. The market generated an expected $1.5bn in 2011 and is expected to continue this positive trend during the forecast with an expected market value of $1.7bn by 2016.
The growth in the market is led by increasing revenues in the mobile sector. The largest revenue comes from mobile voice, while the healthiest growth is in mobile data due to the adoption of mobile money transfer services and the penetration of 3G-based services. We expect that mobile data revenue will increase from an estimated $457m in 2011 to $751m in 2016, almost a 44% share of total telecom revenue.
Mobile voice revenue was estimated at $886m in 2011, which would represent 60% of the total market revenue. Mobile voice will lose revenue share to mobile data and broadband Internet as voice tariffs experience further reductions during the price wars and as the Kenyan infrastructure improves (especially with the expected activation of undersea cables in 2012). Consequently, we estimate that mobile voice revenue will decline to a projected revenue share of 48% in 2016.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Market and Competitor Overview
Kenya in a regional context
Economic, demographic and political context
Regulatory environment
Demand profile
Service evolution
Competitive landscape
Major market players
Segment analysis
Mobile services
Fixed services
Identifying Opportunities
The Kenya Intelligence Report is the industry’s best available analysis on market trends, regulatory environments, and competitive dynamics, providing detailed competitive analysis on fixed and mobile sectors, tracking market adoption of new technologies and services such as WiMAX, IPTV, and VoIP.
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