Emerging markets will become the leading growth engine for smartphone sales over the next five years. China will become the biggest smartphone market in 2010, and other key markets such as Brazil, India, Turkey and Nigeria will record compound annual growth rates above 30% through 2014. Understanding local conditions will be vital for operators, smartphone vendors and OS developers.
This report examines the state of the global smartphone market today, focusing on operator and vendor strategies. It also looks at the intense struggle for market dominance among the various software platforms: Symbian, BlackBerry OS, iPhone OS, Windows Mobile, Android and Palm’s various systems. All this is put into context with an analysis of the mobile services market and the overall handset market. The report investigates in detail the state of the smartphone markets in eight crucial markets: Brazil, China, India, Nigeria, Russia, Turkey, the UK and the US. These case studies contain forecasts of such metrics as handset sales by generation, annual smartphone sell-through and market shares by operating system. Each one also contains detailed data on a key mobile operator in the market.
Key findings include:
The smartphone opportunity over the next five years — 2010 through 2014 — represents sales of 1.8bn units.
Emerging markets are taking the lead role in smartphone adoption globally: China is overtaking the US as the largest market in 2010, while Brazil, India, Nigeria and Turkey expanding at compound annual growth rates exceeding 30% over the next five years.
Operators’ strategies differ a lot across markets based on the method of payment (postpaid or prepaid), subsidies and the level of competition among operators as well as among vendors.
In postpaid markets that have no restrictions on subsidies and that produce high competition among operators and vendors, operators such as AT&T in the US are implementing a strategy of aggressive subsidies, attractive unlimited data plans and a variety of smartphone models with exclusive distribution.
Players in mostly prepaid markets with regulations that prevent handset subsidies, such as MTS in Russia, are focusing on promoting valued-added services using attractive prices and free initial test periods while securing exclusive content.
In Brazil, a segmented strategy by Vivo that focuses on entry-level consumers with the slogan “My first smartphone” and flexible data plans is generating substantial uptake.
As operators’ strategies vary across countries, so too do the market shares of operating systems. Because of local conditions, the BlackBerry has a strong market position in India, while Linux-based systems do much better in China.
BY OMAR SALVADOR, SENIOR ANALYST
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Key Questions Answered
How will smartphone adoption play out over the next five years globally, by region and in the key markets?
How are smartphone trends related to overall mobile service and handset market dynamics?
What operator and vendor strategies are driving smartphone adoption?
Which strategies work for operators pushing smartphones in the market?
What are the market shares of the main smartphone operating systems globally? How do they differ among our eight selected markets? What is the five-year outlook?
What will the smartphone market look like in 2014?
Target audience
Operators: Learn about the key success factors in promoting smartphones and how they vary between countries and vendors. Evaluate marketing strategies and identify those that meet your needs. Discover the relative strengths of the main OS platforms in various market conditions. This report will help you develop and refine an smartphone strategy as well as identify new approaches to reach the target demographic.
Handset vendors: Learn about the key success factors in promoting smartphones and how they vary between countries and operators. Use our forecasts to size the market opportunity, to identify key market opportunities and to develop sales plans. Understand market dynamics and assess the needs of both mobile operators and consumers in both mature and emerging markets. Evaluate operators on their experiences and local factors to build partnerships that leverage what you can offer them. Assess the strategies of your competitors and learn how best to respond. Use our case studies to assess best practices and develop your market-specific strategies.
Software developers: Obtain a better understanding of the competitive landscape among both operators and vendors globally and in eight critical markets. Assess the different needs of both mobile operators and handset vendors in emerging and mature markets. Identify market opportunities and develop go-to-market strategies based on our country-specific forecasts.
Companies mentioned in this report:
Apple
AT&T
Avea
Bharti Airtel
Boost Mobile
Brasil Telecom
BSNL
Carphone Warehouse
China Mobile
China Telecom
China Unicom
Claro Brasil
Columbia Pictures
Coolpad
Dell
Dopod
Etisalat Nigeria
Gicell Wireless
Google
HTC
Leap Wireless
Lebara Mobile
Lenovo
LG Electronics
Lycamobile
MegaFon
MetroPCS
Microsoft
Motorola
M-Tel
MTNL
MTS Russia
Multi-Links
Nokia
O2 UK
Oi
Omlet.ru
Orange UK
Palm
Phones4U
Psion
Reliance Communications
Reltel (Zoom Mobile)
Research in Motion (RIM)
RIM (Research in Motion)
Samsung
SkyLink
Skype
Sony Ericsson
Sprint
Starcomms
Symbian
Tele2
Telecom Italia
Telsim (Vodafone Turkey)
Tesco Mobile
Three UK
TIM Brasil
T-Mobile UK
T-Mobile USA
Turk Telecom
Turkcell
Verizon Wireless
VimpelCom
Virgin Mobile UK
Virgin Mobile USA
Visafone
Vivo
Vodafone
Vodafone India
Vodafone Turkey (Telsim)
Vodafone UK
World Bank
Zain Nigeria
Zain Nigeria
Zoom Mobile (Reltel)
ZTE
The Smartphone Forecast is part of Pyramid’s research report series. A blend of primary research and qualitative analysis, Pyramid’s research reports offer comprehensive coverage of the fixed and mobile communications space and enable those in the communications industry to stay ahead of changing market dynamics. For more information about this report, please contact us via email at info@pyr.com or telephone at (617) 871-1900
